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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It frequently acts as a kind of apology. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the largest resurgence wins the award. However, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or just the most shocking surprise.

However this year's competition is fundamentally unique. The pool of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference champions falling away and recent strugglers rising collectively. Under an typical season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this wild and thrilling season, he's competing with five other exceptional candidates.

This is how the projected vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his special talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to spin magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But this is not a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty following his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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