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Amid the widespread uncertainty regarding the American military actions on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “run” the country and “seize control of the oil”, a single fact remains evident – they set a truly chilling precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but the recent overnight operation witnessed its premier large-scale offensive on the continent of South America. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Trump proclaimed.

The choice to militarily strike another independent nation and capture its head of state – mere days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – carries even broader implications. It should alarm us all.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have stolen the last election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has indicated that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and rejected rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other elements of the headless administration are even more hardline.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who was elected vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is transforming it into a renegade nation.

He is convinced that the US’s might enables it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: observe the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He claims that Venezuelan oil means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came lacking any form of UN approval or the consent of the US Congress; Democrats were not even informed and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to destroy them.

Disregard the implication this carries to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will surely embolden further adventurism.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

Few believe the justification that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is driven by the allure of petroleum resources as well as machismo, the worldview of key officials, and the quest for a legacy as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to redirect his gaze inward – but rising medical costs, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals make foreign conflicts more appealing.

It has been less than 12 months into his time in office. World leaders may live to repent if they fail to speak up today, given what – and who – could be next.